Tell your statistics to shut up!

david-goliath.jpgOh well, according to this guy, the game shouldn’t even be played on Sunday!

Leave it to some nerd from a website called Coldhardfootballfacts.com to come up with all kinds of statistics that bolster his theory that the game between the Giants and the Patriots will be the “Mismatch of the Century.”

It’s always dangerous for someone to be so confident and right in their opinions that they can’t seem to accept the notion that ANYTHING can happen, especially when it comes to a single game. Sure, on paper (or an Excel spreadsheet, HTML table, PowerPoint presentation, etc.) the Patriots look virtually unbeatable.

However, to paraphrase Coach Coughlin, “Talk (and statistics) is cheap. Play the game.”

When you get so-called “experts” like this spewing out all kinds of statistics and logistical models that attempt to buttress their theories, that’s when you get into trouble. Does this guy’s theory take into account the fact that Tom Brady may or may not be suffering from a fairly serious ankle injury? Does his theory consider the notion that the Patriots are an undefeated team going into a championship game and, if they lose, they will be derided by the football world for eternity? Does he understand the unbelievable pressure they are under?

Of course, let’s not be foolish, the Giants are definitely the underdog here, and the conventional wisdom is that the Patriots will very likely win this game. However, to coin this contest as the “Mismatch of the Century” (and the century is only eight years old) seems rather childish. It’s not David vs. Goliath, folks–it’s just a football game.

Whenever I read or hear sports “experts” throwing complicated statistics out in order to make themselves look smarter than everyone else, I think of Charlie Brown’s response to Lucy when she trotted out a bunch of numbers to point out why their baseball team always lost.

“Lucy, tell your statistics to shut up!”

Take heed, Mr. Coldhardfootballfacts.com guy…